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11/11/2016

Welcome to At the Waterʼs Edge, an open forum for discussion of international relations and foreign policy issues hosted by the Tucson Committee on Foreign Relations. Our goal is to present interesting, concise, and reliable information that will stimulate constructive discussion within and beyond the TCFR community.

The spirit of At the Waterʼs Edge is suggested by the forumʼs name. We encourage expression of diverse views and opinions. We also honor a long American tradition of domestic political differences stopping at the waterʼs edge in favor of a bipartisan foreign policy. Here, divergent views carry us to the waterʼs edge of greater knowledge and understanding.

Itʼs appropriate that the inaugural post on At the Waterʼs Edge is written by Dr. Thomas Volgy. Tom is Professor of Political Science at the University of Arizona, specializing in international politics, democratic processes, and domestic public policy. He is a longtime TCFR member and, currently, vice president of the TCFR Executive Board.
We encourage your participation in At the Waterʼs Edge, both as an author and in comments to othersʼ posts. Our editorial guidelines can be found by clicking on the “Blog” tab on our web site.

There is a wealth of experience and perspectives among TCFR members. Let the discussion begin!

Robert Thompson
TCFR President
2016-2017

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At the Water's Edge

11/10/2016

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And the real impact of trade policy is….?
Few can contest that this has been the wackiest Presidential election cycle in at least the last hundred years. Our collective frustrations over the trivia dominating our elections cycle is well founded. Democracy cannot function well when the public is left unexposed to meaningful debate about the pressing issues facing us. For voters to do their job of choosing well between contenders, the least they can expect is substantive discussion about policy choices instead of tweets, denunciations, name-calling, and character attacks. As someone vitally interested in foreign policy, I had hoped that the pressing foreign policy issues of the day. This has proven to be quite naïve.

     The American public is ready for such dialogue even if the campaigns are not. It used to be said that the public would want such debate over domestic issues but not over foreign policy. This election cycle makes that piece of wisdom fall apart as well. Consider the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), and past and future trade agreements in general. A decade ago, these issues would have been considered too boring for most voters. Yet both the Trump and Sanders campaigns have so completely denounced both the TPP and NAFTA, that ending these deals has become a rallying cry on both the left and the right (at least the populist right).

     Rallying cry is one thing; having a meaningful discussion in front of the public about trade-offs, objectives, and consequences is something that is necessary for the democratic process to work well. Rather than arguing about who can make the better deal (or, to have no deal at all), we need a full blown discussion to try to answer some crucial questions if we are going to move forward as a nation in a globalized economy.

     I have some of these questions. I don’t pretend to know the correct answers, but I would love to have had the campaigns answer them. Now that the campaign season is finally over, we still need, more than ever, to try to answer them:

From an American vantage point, what do we expect to gain from the TPP and what do we expect to lose? Is it, as some would argue that this package is to benefit some corporations and industries over the vast majority of us whose lives would get worse as more jobs dry up in the U.S.? I’ve looked at the agreement numerous times and I don’t find the job drain that the worst case scenario mongers predict. Maybe I’m wrong, but I would like to see some evidence rather than more empty slogans.
Is this a deal about trade and economics or is it primarily a political deal, designed to enhance our influence in the Asia-Pacific region? In September The Economist predicted that the entire package after implementation would, at best, add one percent to our GDP over an entire decade. Not much of an impact. On the other hand, we, and not China would write the rules about economic relationships, property rights, labor standards and environmental protection, and internet freedom for the region. Equally important, it would help underscore our leadership and alliance relationships in the region and create additional balance against continued Chinese attempts to dominate the South China Sea.
If the political benefits are important to us, and if there are negative impacts on our workers, where will those impact be, and what can we do to compensate people who could be caught in these negative consequences?
Finally, can we not, with some precision, figure out the consequences of previous trade deals? It is undeniable that there has been very substantial economic harm done to a sizeable percent of American blue collar workers over the last two decades. It is also undeniable that NAFTA never quite worked the way we were told it would work: not for us, not for Mexico, and probably not for Canada. But is it NAFTA and/or Chinese accession to the WTO that caused the economic harm to our workers? Are these the principle causes of growing inequality and the destruction of the American dream for millions? Don’t we deserve that discussion and debate…not with rhetoric but armed with real information about cause and effect? Alternative explanations exist: the decline of unions and collective bargaining, the growing automation in manufacturing, the shift from a manufacturing to a service economy unattended by job retraining for those most likely to be hurt by economic transition.

Before we move forward or backwards on trade relationships and trade policy, we deserve to know the answers to these questions. Sadly, they were not forthcoming in this election. Perhaps afterwards?

Thomas J. Volgy
Professor of Political Science
School of Government and Public Policy
University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona 85719 USA

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Editorial Guidelines for this Blog

11/1/2016

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At the Waterʼs Edge
An Online Foreign Policy Forum
At the Waterʼs Edge is an open forum for discussion of current international relations
and foreign policy topics. At the Waterʼs Edge is hosted by the Tucson Committee on
Foreign Relations, an independent, non-partisan educational organization.
Commentary on TCFR activities, programs, and speakers is welcome in At the
Waterʼs Edge, in addition to more general topics.

1. Content Goal: We seek content that is interesting, concise, and reliable. We want to
   educate readers and stimulate discussion concerning issues relevant to the TCFR
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2. Our Target Audience: At the Waterʼs Edge authors are writing primarily for TCFR
members and prospective members. The membership of TCFR includes present and
   former foreign service officers and other diplomats, academics, military officers,
international business executives, professionals, and many others who simply have
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3. Content Criteria: Topics can include (i) analysis of current international relations
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biographical sketches or interviews of persons in the field of international relations
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4. Submission of Posts: Material proposed for publication should be submitted to the
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Thank you for your interest in At the Waterʼs Edge and the Tucson Committee on Foreign Relations.

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